2023 Spring Link Review
Computing (semiconductors) won the cold war
Massive developments for guidance systems
Taiwan chip output responsible for 30% of annual compute growth globally
Advanced chip software is an oligopoly controlled by US companies
Lithography for semiconductors is an extremely specialized space
High technical barrier to entry
Couple nanometer transistors, millions to hundreds of billions per chip
Very, very low tolerance for error
Other oligopolies exist for other specialized chips
PC chips in Japan (?)
Chemical industry behind chip-making is also complex
Silicon is common
Gasses used in manufacturing must be pure
Highly sensitive to impurities
Even random variation in the atoms of pure gasses can cause chip defections
All countries with significant influence over the advanced chip manufacturing market are close allies/partners of the US
A direct consequence of the US cold war sphere of influence and the market’s development in those years
Concerns of US geopolitical withdrawal from East Asia after Vietnam caused many of these states to double down on their chip technology markets
Chinese have deep strategic concerns over their dependence on the chips from the US economic sphere
Not unfounded
They are making improvements, but the Taiwanese are advancing faster than every other competitor can catch up
Moore’s law applied here
China advancing at rate 2^x
Taiwan at 2^(x+y)
Very small player in chip supply chain, mostly an end consumer during electronics assembly
Changes in US chip policy have reduced allies’ investment in China’s chip manufacturing to near 0
Multiple Chinese chip firms on the brink of bankruptcy
CHIPS Act is not trying to create domestic self-sufficiency
It’s a risk mitigation policy to reduce dependence on Taiwan
Europe, Japan, and India are pursuing similar policies
US export controls are not imposed on allies
Korea benefiting from reduced competition
Primarily produces commoditized chips
Not competing with cheaper Chinese manufacturers
Some chip fabricators owned amongst allies, operated in China
Tool imports uncertain
Low competition amongst manufacturers
Startup fixed cost too high
Startups tend to be focused on chip design
Component improvement within chips, manufacturing tools, software
Acquired by market leaders
Data center/server farm performance is the front line
Modern compute is hardly on-prem
American Lion
"American Lion" is a biography of Andrew Jackson by Jon Meacham. Going into the book I only knew a few things about Jackson:
He drove the Indian Removal Act.
He lost to John Quincy Adams in his first presidential race, declaring foul play.
He was involved in the New Orleans battle that occurred after the War of 1812's peace treaty was signed.
I consider myself a bit better than average when it comes to US history, so I was shocked to realize how little I knew about such an influential force. Jackson may be one of the few "great men of history" – setting the world on a path that otherwise would have never been traversed.
Jackson was a breathing contradiction: uncouth yet mannered, pigheaded yet compromising, impulsive yet strategic, irascible yet unperturbed, an egotist, yet selfless. Every story about him fluctuates between these personalities to the point that you wonder whether he alternated control with a doppelgänger. Meacham shows that he was extremely consistent, but it was in a philosophy and attitude that hadn't quite taken root in the republic. The establishment of his time had trouble understanding what motivated him, hence their chronic inability to predict what Jackson would say or do under various circumstances.
Going into his presidency, the US government was still weak and the future of the union very much in question. There were two strong forces that made this so:
The federal government often took the backseat to state governments.
People culturally identified with their states more than the union.
Jackson showed up from the nascent, backwater state of Tennessee with a new idea in mind: these are Americans and the American state serves Americans. This is a nuance away from the attitude of the time. States were often in competition with each other, seeking to bend the federal government to their own wills. A breakup of the union loomed large in those days, so the federal government was always caught in this politicking. However, as Jackson would prove, the executive branch possessed all of the technical authority that it needed to assert itself.
Who Old Hickory was is such a difficult question, and that's part of the reason it's never directly addressed in this book. Instead, stories of the many personalities Jackson assumed are given, and you're left to figure it out. It's one of the reasons I really loved this book. As Meacham walks through the events of Jackson's time you're never really sure which aspect of the Tennessian will pop up. Maybe he'll make subtle threats of military intervention in the state, or maybe he'll placate state legislatures and drum up a compromise.
Andrew Jackson's guiding philosophy didn't fit within a box. He wasn't a populist or a statist, nor an aristocrat or a democrat. Meacham describes the man as someone interested in the betterment and preservation of America. Not the government, not the people, not the economy, nor the faith. It was all of these wrapped up together in his notion of America that he was such a ferocious fighter for. If General Jackson had to ruffle feathers for America – whether the bird be the bank, the legislature, the states, or the people – then tough luck and best wishes.
There is so much more to Andrew Jackson than I can express in a few paragraphs, so I strongly recommend Meacham's "American Lion". He was the original dark horse of American politics.
How To Be Successful
by Sam Altman
Sam Altman is former-CEO of Y Combinator and current CEO of OpenAI. This was shared with me and I thoroughly enjoyed it.